Reducing Poverty, Protecting Livelihoods, and Building Assets in a Changing Climate by Dorte Verner

Author:Dorte Verner [Verner, Dorte]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 978-0-8213-8238-7
Publisher: THE WORLD BANK
Published: 2010-08-15T00:00:00+00:00

Explanatory variables Model 1: Out-migration Model 2: Destination choice Model 3: Migration rates

Constant 105.385 12.845 1.484

(6.01) (13.65) (13.76)

Distanceij –14.771 –1.687

(–47.73) (–51.42)

Characteristics of sending municipality

Average temperaturei –10.163 –0.107

(–4.21) (–12.48)

(Average temperaturei)2 0.401 0.004

(4.73) (14.26)

Average rainfalli –51.864 –0.175

(–3.15) (–7.62)

(Average rainfalli)2 12.720

(2.59)

Per capita consumptioni 0.268 0.002

(2.97) (5.34)

(Per capita consumptioni)2 –0.0004 –0.000003

(–2.21) (–4.39)

Share in secondary and tertiary –0.370

sectorsi (–2.42)

(Share in secondary and tertiary 55.2970 0.756

sectorsi)2 (3.67) (4.59)

Urbanization ratei –0.197

(–4.12)

Education leveli

Municipal spending per capitai –0.171 0.001

(–2.24) (4.98)

Population densityi –0.410 –0.003

(–2.92) (–5.45)

Share of municipality with 0.512 0.002

steep slopei (5.09) (6.76)

Density of secondary roadsi

Oil concessioni –0.066

(–3.12)

Forestry concessioni 0.110

(4.66)

Characteristics of receiving municipality

Average temperaturej 11.105 –0.119

(–11.00) (–12.98)

(Average temperaturej)2 0.045 0.005

(12.76) (15.11)

Average rainfallj –1.9608 –0.1497

(–2.99) (–6.32)

(Average rainfallj)2 0.3831

(2.00)

Population sizej 0.9955 0.0870

(84.26) (78.59)

Per capita consumptionj -0.0255 –0.0021

(–12.17) (–11.45)

Education levelj 0.4781 0.0472

(6.04) (6.57)

Municipal spending per capitaj 0.0022

(8.09)

Share in secondary and tertiary 6.7452 0.5533

sectorsj (10.42) (9.21)

Pressureja –0.9509 –0.0751

(–5.31) (–4.53)

Municipality areaj –0.0382 –0.0028

(–3.17) (–2.47)

Population densityj 0.1710 0.0107

(28.12) (19.20)

Urbanization ratej

Density of primary roadsj

Density of secondary roadsj –0.0072 –0.0005

(–5.33) (–4.23)

Share of municipality with 0.0130 0.0013

steep slopej (3.41) (4.03)

Oil concessionj

Forest concessionj 0.8824 0.0877

(3.43) (3.68)

Number of observations 312 98282 97032

R2 0.2648 0.2172 0.1959

Source: Authors’ estimation.

Notes: The subscript i’s in the stub column refer to sending municipality information; the subscript j’s refer to receiving municipality information; t-values in parentheses.

a. Pressure is the ratio of population to total employment: an indication of the level of unemployment or lack of economic opportunities. It is expected to be positively related to out-migration rates and negatively related to in-migration rates.

Figure 7.5 Bolivia: Temperature Sensitivity of Out-Migration Rates

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